Potential Impacts of the Ukrainian War on Spaceflight

Antares launches NG-17 | Credit: NASA Wallops

The current invasion of Ukraine by Russia could have huge impacts on spaceflight. Obviously, a major concern is cooperation on the International Space Station. NASA said, "The new export control measures will continue to allow US-Russia civil space cooperation. No changes are planned to the agency’s support for ongoing in-orbit and ground station operations."

This could quickly change though. A US House Representative from Houston, Den Crenshaw, suggested replacing the Russian modules with commercial modules. The Russian modules provide the ISS with reboost capabilities which Northrop Grumman recently implemented into the Cygnus spacecraft. Space Pete on Twitter showed how the ISS could look without the Russian Orbital Segment. He suggested adding an International Docking Adapter (IDA) where the Russian segment was.

He said that three Dragons and a Cygnus would be able to provide good reboost capabilities. It is highly unlikely that it would be needed, but in the event of the separation of the Russian Orbital Segment, this could work.

The war could also affect rockets. Over the past 20 years, many US national security missions launched on Atlas V rockets powered by RD-180 engines. Luckily, ULA has received all the engines for the remaining Atlas V launches. But other rockets have bigger problems. The first stage of the Northrop Grumman Antares rocket, which launches Cygnus spacecraft to the ISS, is powered by Russian RD-181 engines. Also, the first stage tank is manufactured by the Yuzhnoye and Yuzhmash facilities in Ukraine which may be destroyed. There have been rumors that these facilities were destroyed by Russian forces, but these were said to be incorrect. The Yuzhmash facility also manufactures the RD-843 engine for the 4th stage of the Arianespace/Avio Vega and Vega-C rockets.

The war may also affect Russia's own space program. Thrusters used on the Soyuz rockets are built in Germany. Also, launches of European satellites on Soyuz rockets may be delayed or canceled. Soyuz rockets are being prepared for launch for a OneWeb mission from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in March, and it is currently unknown whether this launch will happen. Also, all Soyuz launches from French Guiana have been suspended.